CFTC submits event-contract rules that may challenge states’ gambling claims

On September 28, 2026, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted two event-contract rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review. One proposed rule would include event contracts in the swaps definition, while an interim final rule would exclude casino-style gambling products. As of September 28, 2026, OMB’s public records provided neither the rule text nor related details.

Two rules would redraw the boundary

One proposed rule would include event contracts in the definition of swaps. A separate interim final rule would exclude casino-style gambling products. OMB’s public records provided neither the rule text nor a description of what qualifies as a casino-style product.

CFTC documents describe event contracts as derivatives typically using a binary payoff structure and based on the outcome of an underlying event. The documents say prediction-market contracts may fall within the Commodity Exchange Act’s swaps definition or may be futures contracts covered by the act.

Court split leaves jurisdiction disputed

Whether event contracts qualify as swaps is a central question in the dispute between prediction markets and states over regulatory authority for sports contracts. As of the date stated by the source, the Sixth Circuit ruled that Kalshi’s sports contracts are not swaps and are subject to state gambling rules; the Third Circuit had reached a different conclusion earlier.

The CFTC said its March 2026 notice sought public comment on regulatory principles for prediction markets, types of event contracts that may be prohibited as contrary to the public interest, and cost-benefit considerations.